Altcoins a ‘relatively huge’ risk as days of big returns are gone, say analysts

    17 May 2024

    The high-risk, high-reward theory of altcoins might be tilting toward the former as big gains are now less likely due to weak narratives driving the crypto market, say crypto analysts.

    “While tactical opportunities exist, the era of 100x returns may well be behind us,” 10xResearch head of research Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph.

    He cautioned that despite the market anticipating an altcoin bull market this year, “retail participation remains subdued, and few new projects have emerged that captivate non-crypto-native traders.”

    Thielen said past altcoin bull markets had “distinct characteristics” that drew in more money, but this cycle has seen “tighter capital, evidenced by low total value locked and a dearth of venture capital investments.”

    “Last cycle, the narrative that crypto could supplant traditional financial systems was widely embraced, but this cycle’s narratives are shorter-lived and lack substantial backing,” Thielen added.

    Earlier this week, the Solana-based memecoin GameStop (GME) — no affiliation to the video game selling company — rose 2,727% alongside GameStop’s stock price spiking after trader Keith Gill posted a meme from his “Roaring Kitty” X account for the first time in nearly three years.

    MN trading consultancy founder Michael van de Poppe claimed in a May 16 X post that a portfolio mainly holding altcoins poses a “relatively huge” risk.

    “What’s the downside of this bet? It’s relatively huge. At the moment of posting, I’m down around 20% already in a matter of 1-2 weeks on the overall investment.”

    Despite the risk involved, van de Poppe explained he recently sold all his Bitcoin to shift to altcoins, claiming he “can lose 50-80%.”

    However, crypto investor Fabio Andreatta is skeptical that there will even “be an altseason.”

    “All you did is increase your risk,” Andreatta said responding to van de Poppe’s X post. “You are very unlikely to outperform Bitcoin. Most altcoins will never reach their ATHs ever again.”

    Bitcoin’s dominance — its market share relative to the rest of the crypto market — show the broader market has shifted capital away from altcoins

    Bitcoin dominance is nearing a year-to-date all-time high, currently at 56.05%, up 2.12% over the past 7 days, according to TradingView data.


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