The analytic report suggests that the Bitcoin network already transfers more the dollar value than PayPal and could potentially match Mastercard’s network after 2026.
According to a Thursday report from market analysis program Blockdata titled “When might the Bitcoin network process volumes like Mastercard & Visa?”, the network of the largest decentralized cryptocurrency processed about $489 billion per quarter just in 2021, which is substantially higher than the $302 billion of PayPal.
“It’s impressive how Bitcoin, as a 12-year-old decentralized network, is 27% of the way in terms of volume processed compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” the report noted.
Since 2009, the cryptocurrency processing volume got close to 27% of Mastercard’s $1.8 trillion per quarter and 15% of Visa’s $3.2 trillion.
A few factors would see the Bitcoin network rising to the level of the two credit card giants in terms of the total volume processed. These reasons could include the total number of transactions, the average amount of BTC sent per transaction, and the rise in the cryptocurrency price.
The first factor – the total number of transactions – is the most variable-dependent. Theoretically, “if Bitcoin were to increase its value transferred per transaction today by ~260%, it would be processing an equivalent volume to Mastercard on a daily basis,” the report said.
However, the report was unable to find any current data that could indicate that the average amount of Bitcoin delivered for every transaction was seeing an increase. This trend could definitely see a shift in the future, but an increase in price to about $245,000 at the current volume would also make the cryptocurrency matching Mastercard.
Blockdata ultimately claims that it is unlikely for Bitcoin price to rise to the appropriate level to match Mastercard. For example, if one considers the average yearly Bitcoin price, it might take until 2060. On the other hand, “taking the current growth rate in 2021 as a metric, it could happen as soon as 2026.”
The report noted that although it is relatively young, the decentralized Bitcoin network has achieved high volumes compared to the two centralized credit card giants.